Enough recorded data
Payroll and expenses are recorded through the recent months, so the run rate reflects how the contract is actually spending.
Why it matters
An underspend and an overspend both cost money.
A funder will not reimburse spending above the approved budget, and money left unspent at the end of a reimbursement contract is generally not paid out. Both are much easier to fix with months left than at closeout: a budget modification, a hire, a purchase moved forward or a cost held back. Spenddown forecasting is how a finance team sees that early.
How the projection is built
Recorded actuals, plus the recent pace — nothing invented.
Projected spend at the contract’s end = recorded actuals to date + for each remaining month: the average of the last three approved payroll months (or the budgeted monthly rate when no payroll is recorded yet), fringe and indirect at the Budget Builder rates, and recurring vendors — billed in two or more months — at their monthly average. One-time expenses stay in the actuals and are not projected forward. If the contract has a saved forecast scenario, that scenario is used instead, and the page says which method it shows.
Every assumption is written out next to the figure. Nothing assumes a hire, a vacancy, a future invoice or a rate change.
| Illustrative contract | Amount |
|---|---|
| Approved budget | $191,400 |
| Recorded to date (9 months) | $77,220 |
| Projected for the 5 remaining months | $42,900 |
| Projected spend at contract end | $120,120 |
| Projected underspend | $71,280 |
Illustrative figures: payroll running at $6,000 a month against a budget planned for $10,000.
Reliability
A forecast says when it should not be trusted.
Organization totals add only standard forecasts; limited and unavailable ones are listed separately.
Something is missing
For example: a month with no approved payroll after payroll began, pay posted to no contract, a pending run in a month already treated as recorded, or a contract record whose budget disagrees with the program. The reason is named — “no approved payroll recorded for September”.
Not enough to project
No budget, no linked contract, a contract that has not started, or nothing recorded yet. The missing inputs are listed instead of a number.
Personnel vs OTPS
See which category is driving the position.
The projection is split into personnel and fringe, OTPS and indirect, so a team can tell whether payroll is running below the budgeted rate, or whether one category is heading over its line while the contract overall stays within budget. Personnel is projected only once payroll is recorded. Because one-time OTPS is not projected forward, an OTPS line with no recurring vendor can make an underspend look larger — the signal says how much of it is OTPS. How shared staff reach each contract is covered in payroll allocation.
Signals
Plain statements, not verdicts.
- Projected underspend or overspend beyond 2% of the approved budget (within 2% is on track).
- Pace: “Actual spending is 61% of budget with 82% of contract time elapsed” — flagged when spending is more than 2 points ahead of time or more than 10 points behind.
- Ending soon: a contract ending within 120 days with budget still to spend.
- Reliability: “Forecast reliability is limited — no approved payroll recorded for September”.
These are Prove It’s own planning thresholds, not funder rules, and being behind plan is never described as noncompliance.
Month-End Close
The forecast, every month, beside the close.
Month-End Close shows, for a chosen month, each contract’s readiness, budget vs actual and remaining, its projected position and one recommended next action. A finance user can mark the month reviewed; the review keeps the figures as they stood, and later changes to the records are shown as drift instead of rewriting it. Reimbursements and payments appear beside it as context — cash received never changes the forecast (see grant receivables).
Related: funder voucher software · DYCD voucher software · federal grants.
Project one contract to its end date.
Load a contract, its budget and its recorded payroll and expenses, and see where it lands — with every assumption shown.
Questions
Common questions
Does the forecast predict hires or vacancies?
No. It continues the recorded payroll run rate. A planned hire or a known vacancy can be modeled in a saved forecast scenario, which then replaces the run rate for that contract.
What if a month of payroll is missing?
The forecast is marked limited and names the month. If nothing is recorded at all, the forecast is unavailable and lists the missing inputs.
Does receiving a payment change the forecast?
No. The forecast is built from recorded spending. Reimbursements, payments and advances are shown separately.
Is “behind plan” treated as a compliance problem?
No. Pace and projected underspend are planning signals. Prove It does not call a contract noncompliant unless a verified funder rule supports it.